Shui Jing Fang delivered its bleakest annual report card; E Fund (HK) CSI Liquor Index ETF (03189.HK) swung lower in intraday trade, sinking more than 1.5%.

NewTimeSpace News – Margin compression across the board and an earnings vacuum are amplifying market concerns. On 21 January the baijiu basket extended its pullback; as of 14:30 the E Fund (HK) CSI Liquor Index ETF (03189.HK) was drifting lower in choppy trade, down 1.78%.

HKEX data show the fund is the first Hong Kong-listed ETF dedicated to mainland China’s baijiu sector and tracks the CSI Baijiu Index closely. The index draws its universe from the CSI All Share universe and selects listed companies engaged in the production of baijiu, offering investors a diversified exposure. Its top-10 constituents include leading brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao.

On the earnings front, Shui Jing Fang delivered a bleak 2025 scorecard. On 19 January the company guided that revenue is expected to reach RMB 3.038 bn, a 42% YoY drop, while net profit attributable to shareholders is forecast at RMB 392 mn, down 71%. Net profit after extraordinary items is seen at RMB 381 mn, also down 71%.

CSC Financial points out that the industry is simultaneously experiencing “five bottoms” – policy, inventory, sell-through, wholesale price and production–sales – while the market reflects “three lows and one high”: low expectations, low valuations, low mutual-fund holdings and high dividend yields. With recent supportive measures taking effect and the Spring-Festival peak season approaching, CSC believes the current down-cycle is approaching an inflection point and that capital-market expectations are turning first, presenting a cyclical bottom-fishing opportunity for the baijiu sector. (Source: CSC Securities, 09-Jan-26, “Inflection Point of Baijiu Down-Cycle Approaching; Sector Presents Cyclical Bottom-Fishing Opportunity”)

Last December’s Central Economic Work Conference had already removed unreasonable restrictions on banquets and large-scale gatherings, releasing pent-up demand.

CSC Financial notes that past cycles (2012-16, 2016-21 and 2022-25) show the industry now faces “five bottoms”—policy, inventories, sell-through, wholesale prices and output—while the market exhibits “three lows and one high”: low expectations, low valuations, low mutual-fund ownership and high dividend yields.
With fresh brand strategies from Moutai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao timed for the Spring Festival peak, the sector may be approaching a cyclical inflection point, offering investors a potential bottom-of-cycle entry opportunity.
(Source: CSC Financial, 9 Jan 2026, “Liquor Cycle Inflection in Sight: Sector at Cyclical Low”)

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