On March 5, 2026, IFBH (06603.HK), which had been suffering from a continuous decline in share price, experienced a significant rebound. The stock surged by more than 40% during morning trading before closing with a gain of 11.06%. This uptick is likely attributed to the company’s formal response to allegations regarding "added sugar" in its "if" brand products.

NewTimeSpace has learned that since its listing in June 2025, IFBH—dubbed by the capital market as the "first stock of coconut water"—reached an intraday peak of HK$48.8, with its market capitalization once exceeding HK$12.68 billion. However, following the recent prolonged decline, nearly HK$10 billion in market value evaporated in just eight months. As of the close on March 5, 2026, its market capitalization stood at only HK$3.09 billion.

Facing Market Skepticism, Share Price Continues to Hit New Lows

Public records show that IFBH is a food and beverage company whose founder, Pongsakorn Pongsak, launched the "if" brand in 2013, followed by the "Innococo" brand in 2022.

NewTimeSpace understands that "if" coconut water has consistently marketed itself as "100% pure coconut water," produced using the NFC (Not From Concentrate) process.

Recently, media reports indicated that four popular coconut water samples were submitted to a third-party institution for component testing, and all four were suspected of containing exogenous sugar additives. Although the report did not explicitly name the brands tested, the packaging shown in the report suggested that one of them was the industry-leading brand, "if" coconut water.

As the incident escalated, it triggered widespread market skepticism regarding the "added sugar" in the "if" brand. Following the media report on February 27, and prior to the rebound on March 5, the share price of IFBH plummeted by 21.13% over the three trading days from March 2 to March 4, 2026.

During this period, IFBH's share price continued to hit new lows, dropping to as low as HK$10.36, representing a decline of over 60% from its offer price.  

On March 4, 2026, the coconut water brand "if" (Yifu), under IFBH, issued a solemn statement via its official Weibo account. It stated that false information regarding "added exogenous sugar and exogenous water" in "if" 100% coconut water products had appeared online and was being disseminated by certain media outlets and individuals without verification. The statement added that these false claims were being maliciously hyped, seriously misleading consumers and damaging the reputation of the "if" brand.  

The brand clarified that it takes the situation very seriously and stated: Since its launch, "if" 100% coconut water has adhered to the product philosophy of being "natural and pure" and strictly followed production standards. No exogenous sugar, exogenous water, or artificial flavors are added during the production process; all sugar content originates naturally from the coconuts themselves.  

On March 5, 2026, following IFBH's strong response, the company's share price rebounded by over 40% during morning sessions. By the close of the day, IFBH was quoted at HK$11.65, a gain of 11.06%.

Growth Momentum Fades; Operating Cash Flow Decreases Significantly

NewTimeSpace has learned that IFBH formally listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) on June 30, 2025, with an offer price of HK$27.8 per share. The stock opened nearly 58% higher, and its gains reached 71.04% within the first two days of listing, bringing the market cap to HK$12.61 billion.

It is understood that over 90% of IFBH's sales are generated in China, making it an IPO truly "fueled by Chinese consumers." The public offering was highly sought after, with an oversubscription rate exceeding 2,682 times. Cornerstone investors included UBS Group, Sequoia China Public Market Investment Fund (HCEP Management), and others.

However, the initial fervor and the presence of prestigious cornerstone investors did not sustain IFBH's share price for long. After the initial surge following the IPO, the stock entered a period of volatile decline. As of the close on March 5, 2026, the cumulative decline in IFBH's share price since listing reached 58.09%, and it has dropped more than 70% from its peak.

NewTimeSpace has learned that IFBH possessed impressive growth data prior to its listing. In 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 1.158 billion, with a net profit of RMB 242 million, representing growth of 80.32% and 94.12%, respectively. As one of the earliest pure coconut water brands to enter the Chinese market, the "if" brand has maintained the top market share for five consecutive years, reaching a 34% share in 2024.

Furthermore, IFBH operates on an extreme asset-light model. By the end of 2024, this company—which generated over RMB 1.1 billion in revenue—employed only 46 people globally. Its revenue per capita was approximately RMB 24 million, an efficiency level far surpassing traditional beverage giants.

NewTimeSpace understands that IFBH outsorces all stages of production, logistics, and distribution, concentrating operations across 12 OEM factories in Thailand. The company maintains only a small internal team of six people to oversee procurement, production, and global distribution.

However, in 2025, the growth myth of IFBH began to fade. Recently, IFBH issued a profit warning, expecting net profit for the year ended December 31, 2025, to decrease by approximately 27% to 32% compared to the same period in 2024. Adjusted net profit is expected to decrease by approximately 20% to 25% year-on-year.

The company attributed the decrease in net profit and adjusted net profit primarily to operational and strategic factors. Specifically, its sub-brand "Innococo" faced temporary operational challenges rather than a significant impact on underlying product demand, leading to a substantial year-on-year decline in revenue. Meanwhile, gross margins were adversely affected by unfavorable foreign exchange fluctuations.

Additionally, IFBH's 2025 financial report showed that operating cash flow decreased by 70.5% year-on-year, falling from US$41.75 million to US$12.33 million. Accounts receivable surged by 173%, increasing from US$7.05 million to US$19.24 million.

Severe Reliance on a Single Brand; Intensifying Industry Competition

NewTimeSpace has learned that IFBH is heavily dependent on its core brand, "if" coconut water.

Data shows that in 2025, the "if" brand contributed US$167 million in revenue, accounting for 94.5% of the group's total income, while the coconut water category accounted for 97.5% of total revenue. This implies that IFBH is essentially an "IF Coconut Water" company, with other product lines being almost negligible. The expected second growth curve, "Innococo," saw its revenue decline by more than 90% in the second half of 2025.  

Furthermore, IFBH is equally dependent on the Mainland China market. In 2025, Mainland China contributed 90.4% of the company's revenue. While overseas markets like Australia and Indonesia are growing rapidly, their share remains small and cannot yet mitigate the risks associated with fluctuations in the Chinese market.  

According to China Insights Consultancy (CIC) data, the Chinese coconut water market has a CAGR of 19.4% and is expected to reach US$2.652 billion by 2029. However, the market, once viewed by capital as a "blue ocean," is seeing intensifying competition.

The prospectus shows that IFBH held a market share of approximately 34% in Mainland China in 2024, having peaked at over 50%. However, with the entry of giants like Jiaguoyuan, Vita Coco, and Nongfu Spring, as well as private-label brands from retail giants like Hema and Sam’s Club, IFBH’s market share is being steadily eroded.

Data from MaShangYing indicates that the "if" brand’s market share dropped from 62.07% in Q4 2023 to 30.3% in Q3 2025, reflecting a significant decline in its industry-leading position.

As more companies and brands enter the coconut water market, price wars have intensified, and the pricing system has collapsed over the past two years.

MaShangYing data shows that in Q1 2025, the average terminal retail price per 100ml of coconut water beverage fell to RMB 1.46, a sharp decline of 23.6% compared to the same period in 2023. This price is 27.0% lower than the average cost of raw materials, indicating a clear price inversion.

Industrial Securities pointed out that the coconut water market is characterized by a "gap at the top, fragmentation in the middle, and a scattered long tail." How to avoid homogenization and achieve differentiated competition has become a mandatory challenge for industry players.

NewTimeSpace Disclaimer: All content herein is the original work of NewTimeSpace. Any reproduction, reprinting, or use of this content in any other manner must clearly indicate the source as "NewTimeSpace". NewTimeSpace and its authorized third-party information providers strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data, but do not guarantee the absolute correctness thereof. This content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. All transaction risks shall be borne by the user.