NewTimeSpace | Hong Kong IPO Monthly Report for October 2026: All three new listings sink below their offer prices, a "structural cooling" behind a 16-year-high fundraising total

Hong Kong's IPO market in October presented a rare contrast: annual fundraising stood at a 16-year high, yet all three new listings of the month — ESWIN Computing, Transsion Holdings and DSBJ — closed below their offer prices on their first day. The "heat" on the fundraising side coexisted with the "cold" on the issuance side, sketching the truest picture of the city's new-listing market.

Annual fundraising hits a record high, but "heavyweights" carry the bulk of the total

According to Wind data, 118 companies had listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as of 28 October, raising HK$401.39 billion, up 83.59% year on year and the highest since 2011 — just about HK$13 billion shy of the record HK$414.4 billion set in 2010. A total of 116 IPOs in the first three quarters raised more than HK$388 billion, the highest ever for the first nine months. KPMG expects full-year fundraising to approach HK$500 billion, Deloitte projects no less than HK$480 billion, and several institutions forecast a range of HK$480 billion to HK$500 billion.

Yet the high concentration of this fundraising cannot be overlooked. The top ten IPOs raised a combined HK$180.70 billion, or 45% of the year's total, of which nine were "A+H" companies; the top three — Zhongji Innolight, Luxshare Precision and Victory Giant Technology — raised HK$109.62 billion, or 27.3%. Meanwhile, 40 companies raised less than HK$1 billion each this year, totalling just HK$22.82 billion, or about 5.68% of the total. As market observers put it, the underlying tone of this year's IPO market is "concentrated issuance of mega deals, rather than broad-based prosperity."

All three October listings break below offer price, cornerstone "thickness" decides divergence

The three new listings in October all came under pressure on their first day: ESWIN Computing (9 October) fell 0.97% on debut, raising about HK$2.51 billion, with an effective subscription multiple of 9.09x and cornerstone commitments of HK$1.28 billion; Transsion Holdings (15 October) fell 5.72%, raising about HK$3.06 billion, with a subscription multiple of 4.46x and cornerstones of HK$1.25 billion; DSBJ (28 October) fell 0.75%, raising HK$9.88 billion — the largest deal of the month — but with an effective public-offer subscription multiple of just 0.52x and cornerstone commitments as high as HK$4.94 billion.

A common feature of the three deals is that cornerstone capital played a decisive role. Take DSBJ: facing a fundraising size of nearly HK$10 billion, the company brought in 20 top-tier cornerstone investors, locking in up to US$680 million, covering 50% of the global offering, and cut the offer price from the top end of HK$93.80 to HK$86.80, trading a discount for a closed deal. By contrast, Changzhou Microintelligence (Microintelligence), which was abruptly pulled after its book-building, had only one cornerstone investor accounting for 2.11%, and its international tranche ultimately failed to be fully subscribed. The difference in cornerstone "thickness" was magnified in October into a watershed between success and failure.

First-day break rate rises in stages, issuance side slams the brakes

Breaking below the offer price on day one was not unique to October. As of 28 October, 30 of the year's 118 IPOs had closed below their offer price on debut, a first-day break rate of 25.42%; but the probability rose markedly once the third quarter began, with 17 of the 34 listings since Q3 breaking on debut — a roughly 50% break rate for the quarter. On a monthly basis, 7 of the 12 companies listed in September closed below their offer price, a monthly break rate of about 58.3%, while all three October listings broke on debut. Stretched over a longer horizon, the pressure is even more pronounced: as of 22 October, 79 of the year's 118 new stocks had fallen below their offer price, nearly 70%; among them, the break rate for "A+H" newly listed stocks reached 87.2%, with an average decline of 35.02%.

The transmission of the break effect is reshaping the pace on the issuance side. On 25 October, Microintelligence — originally scheduled to list on 28 October — announced a delay of its global offering, becoming the fourth company this year to postpone its listing after book-building; Beijing Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment had also previously paused its offering before re-launching and completing its listing. EKH, FORMS Syntron and Jiangsu Slender West Lake Culture and Tourism had all called off their offerings after book-building. Slender West Lake's case is especially telling: retail subscription reached 3,064x, yet the international tranche was not fully subscribed and there were no cornerstone investors to backstop the deal, which was ultimately called off before listing.

The number of terminated listings is also accumulating. Goertek terminated the spin-off of Goer Microelectronics to Hong Kong on 12 October, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical terminated the spin-off of Lannacheng on 14 October, and AGIBOT Innovation (AgiBot) was also reported to have put its Hong Kong IPO on hold. According to incomplete market statistics, nearly 20 A-share companies have terminated or suspended their H-share issuance this year, including Three Squirrels, Lakala, Linglong Tire, Cooltech Power, Hwatsing Technology and Broad-Ocean Motor. Further upstream, market statistics show that since YUDO Holdings filed on 29 September, there was a 29-day window — through 28 October — with no new first-time filings by ordinary companies, breaking the high-frequency filing pace seen this year; about 154 listing applications had lapsed this year. Zeng Wenyuan, EY's assurance services leader, noted that the foremost difficulty for the many companies withdrawing their H-share applications is that "the valuation simply cannot be pushed up."

Hard tech remains the main theme, but pricing power is tilting toward the secondary market

By sector, October's three new listings continued the hard-tech-dominated pattern of the year: ESWIN Computing belongs to the semiconductor chip track, while Transsion Holdings and DSBJ fall under the consumer-electronics/smart-hardware industrial chain. This year, technology companies account for nearly half of listings and more than 60% of funds raised, with semiconductors, AI and advanced manufacturing as the main force.

But the valuation elasticity of the hard-tech track is being recalibrated by secondary-market absorption capacity. In the first half, AI and semiconductor sentiment drove sharp first-day gains for some new stocks, but into the second half, some deals still priced at elevated valuations faced break pressure immediately after listing. Even with 20 cornerstone investors and a proactive 7.5% discount, DSBJ still recorded only 0.39x retail margin subscription; the core reason retail investors held back is that the H-share discount safety cushion relative to A-shares has narrowed, significantly weakening arbitrage expectations.

Closing

Hong Kong's IPO market in October was not an ebb of fundraising, but a rebalancing of issuance pace and pricing logic. The full-year HK$401.39 billion total proves Hong Kong's capacity as a listing venue for large companies, yet the month's three all-breaking listings, the nearly 20 A-share companies terminating or suspending their H-share plans, and the filing window stretching to 29 days all signal that the market's "screening" is moving upstream from issuance to application. For companies planning to list, the thickness of the cornerstone lineup, the sincerity of the issue discount, and the assessment of secondary-market absorption are replacing the mere ability to "get the deal out" as the more front-loaded proposition. A pipeline of large deals remains for the fourth quarter, but the gap between "getting it out" and "getting it done well" will become more visible in the pricing battles ahead.