The HBM and Memory Supercycle Continues as Samsung's Third-Quarter Profit May Hit a Record; E Fund (Hk) Solactive Asia Semiconductor Select Index Etf (03486.HK) Gains 34.94% in Six Months

NewTimeSpace News：Wind data show that E Fund (Hk) Solactive Asia Semiconductor Select Index Etf (03486.HK) closed at HKD 19.25 as of 28 September, down 3.94%, with turnover of about HKD 11.34 million that day; as of 28 September, the fund's size stood at about HKD 186 million, with net asset value per unit of HKD 19.217, after peaking at about HKD 201 million on 22 September. Listed in Hong Kong on 26 March 2026 and less than one year old, the product has no year-to-date or one-year figures yet; it rose 4.90% in a single day on 18 September and then declined for three consecutive sessions from 24 to 28 September.

On performance, the product gained 34.94% over the past six months, while the Hang Seng Index fell 1.24% and peer funds rose 14.03%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by about 36 percentage points and peers by about 21 percentage points. Asian semiconductor stocks pulled back sharply on 28 September: BIREN TECH fell 8.18%, GIGADEVICE 6.58%, HUA HONG GRACE 4.62%, SMIC 3.63% and MONTAGE TECH 2.75%, while the Hang Seng Index closed 0.54% higher at 24,642.51 points, a clear divergence between the sector and the broad market; on 29 September the Hang Seng Index was down 0.37% at 24,551.99 points intraday.

On the news front, the positives: the memory supercycle continues. According to Korean media, Samsung's memory business has allocated about 70% of its capacity through 2031 to long-term agreements, with customers including NVIDIA, Microsoft and Google; the spot price of a 36GB HBM3E module is about USD 2,100, roughly four to five times the long-term contract price, and 16-layer HBM4 trades at up to USD 3,500 on the spot market. The market consensus expects Samsung Electronics to post third-quarter revenue of KRW 206.64 trillion and operating profit of KRW 116.38 trillion, and SK Hynix third-quarter revenue of KRW 101.76 trillion, up 28.2% quarter on quarter, with operating profit of KRW 79.16 trillion, up 30.7%, both potentially record highs. Upstream momentum corroborates this: TSMC's August revenue rose 53.3% year on year to a monthly record, its 2-nanometer wafers are priced at about USD 30,000 with capacity booked through 2028, and its second-quarter foundry share reached 72.5%. CoWoS advanced packaging remains tight, with monthly capacity expected at 120,000-140,000 wafers by end-2026 and about 200,000 in 2027, and the CoWoS-L share rising to about 75% by the fourth quarter of 2026. On 28-29 September, Samsung's 2-nanometer process yield approached 60%, up from about 30% in mid-2025, and Qualcomm said it is evaluating Samsung's 2-nanometer technology and discussing future Snapdragon platforms. WSTS expects global semiconductor sales to reach USD 1.511 trillion in 2026, up 89.9% year on year. On the downside: A-share and Hong Kong semiconductor names corrected across the board on 28 September, with profit-taking pressure after strong gains and elevated valuations; institutions flagged risks of AI capital spending and commercialization falling short, NAND capacity expansion adding supply pressure, weak consumer electronics demand, and trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions; and the product is less than one year old with about HKD 186 million in assets, relatively limited Stock Connect and secondary-market liquidity, and high sensitivity to geopolitics and currency moves in Asian semiconductor markets.

Managed by E Fund Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited and listed in Hong Kong on 26 March 2026 with a total expense ratio of 1.4%, the product tracks the Solactive Asia Semiconductor Select Index (Net Total Return), compiled by Solactive with 33 constituents: it covers Hong Kong, Korea, the United States (ADRs of Asian companies such as TSMC) and Japan, spanning the entire Asian semiconductor value chain including foundry (TSMC, SMIC, HUA HONG GRACE), memory (SK Hynix), packaging and equipment (ASMPT, Tokyo Electron, Advantest) and computing chips and third-generation semiconductors (BIREN TECH, INNOSCIENCE). The product uses a full replication or representative sampling strategy, may invest up to 30% of net asset value in collective investment schemes (ETFs or index-tracking funds) and up to 30% in financial derivatives including futures and swaps, and makes discretionary distributions that may be paid out of capital. As of 23 September, its top ten holdings totalled about 74.6%: SK Hynix 10.74%, TSMC 10.05%, ASMPT 8.32%, HUA HONG GRACE 8.03%, BIREN TECH 7.45%, SMIC 7.32%, ILUVATAR COREX 5.98%, INNOSCIENCE 5.84%, GIGADEVICE 5.52% and MONTAGE TECH 5.38%, with Hong Kong accounting for about 59%, Korea about 15%, the US about 13% and Japan about 12% geographically, giving it pronounced exposure to the AI computing and memory chain. It suits aggressive investors who are bullish on AI computing and the Asian semiconductor supply chain and can tolerate high industry and geopolitical volatility. Risk warning: for reference only; this is not investment advice; past performance does not guarantee future results; invest with caution. (Data source: ROYALFLUSH INFO iFinD, as of 29 September 2026)

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