FGX Crude Oil (03097.HK) Down 2.62% as Oil Prices Hit a Four-Week Low

NewTimeSpace News: As of 10:51 on November 4, FGX Crude Oil (03097.HK) was quoted at HK$10.020, down 2.62%. The ETF has so far traded only 13,700 units today, with turnover of HK$137,822 and an average price of HK$10.060; its turnover rate is 0.137%. It has fallen 8.58% week to date. The net asset value per unit is HK$10.1615, and assets under management stand at HK$102 million. (Note: only one trade was recorded today, at 10:07 at HK$10.060, after which the price is a market quotation; NAV and AUM are as of November 2; the week-to-date change is based on the October 30 close of HK$10.960.)

US crude traded near US$96.73 a barrel in Asian hours on November 4, with oil prices at a near four-week low. In the prior session on November 3, the December NYMEX contract settled at US$96.09 a barrel, down 0.38%, while the January Brent contract settled at US$103.60, down 1.12%. Investors are weighing progress in talks to end the conflicts involving Ukraine and Iran against concerns that recent attacks could further disrupt supply, leaving the geopolitical risk premium and supply-recovery expectations pulling in opposite directions.

FGX Crude Oil (03097.HK) is a commodity futures ETF seeking to track crude oil futures prices by holding crude futures and related instruments, with NAV moving with futures prices and roll costs. When the futures curve is in backwardation, rolling generates positive returns; in contango, rolling incurs a cost.

Shanghai Mid-Term Futures notes that the front-month crude contract fell 8.62% overnight after Iran's president said the Supreme Leader had authorised talks and the US said a deal was possible, sending prices sharply lower as geopolitical risk eased. Although Middle East exports are recovering via alternative routes, supply flexibility remains constrained by damaged infrastructure, transport capacity and tanker insurance costs. It cites IEA forecasts of a 2.5 million barrel-per-day year-on-year decline in global oil demand in the fourth quarter, which would weaken the fundamental basis for sustained price gains; near term, prices will remain driven by the geopolitical risk premium, with attention on damage to Middle East energy facilities and actual Hormuz transits.