NewTimeSpace | Performance Growth Fails to Mask Stock Price Halving: Scaled Profitability Remains a Challenge for Pony AI (02026.HK)

In November 2024, Pony AI (02026.HK) secured its title as the "first global Robotaxi stock" by listing in the US. A year later, it debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, completing a dual primary listing structure.

NewTimeSpace has observed that since its Hong Kong debut, Pony AI’s market performance has been underwhelming. Despite being the largest global autonomous driving IPO of 2025, its share price has continued to slide into 2026. On the evening of March 26, 2026, Pony AI released its 2025 annual results, which triggered another sharp sell-off.

As of the close on March 27, 2026, the company was quoted at HK$74.6, dropping nearly 14% on the day and marking a cumulative decline of over 45% from its IPO price.

Trading Nearly 50% Below IPO Price Post-HK Listing

Public records show that Pony AI, founded in 2016, is a technology company focused on autonomous mobility services. The company is dedicated to building comprehensive autonomous driving technologies and solutions covering both the mobility and logistics sectors.

NewTimeSpace understands that Pony AI operates three core business segments: Robotaxi (autonomous mobility), Robotruck (autonomous logistics), and Technology Licensing and Applications. Its global autonomous road testing mileage has exceeded 70 million kilometers, including over 18 million kilometers of fully driverless testing.

Currently, the company’s Robotaxi operations cover a total area of over 2,000 square kilometers in major Chinese cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Its global footprint has expanded to countries including Singapore, the UAE, Qatar, South Korea, and Luxembourg.

For its Hong Kong IPO, Pony AI offered 48,249,000 shares at a price of HK$139 per share. It introduced five cornerstone investors who collectively subscribed for $120 million (approximately HK$932 million) in shares. With total proceeds reaching up to HK$7.7 billion (including the "green shoe" over-allotment), it became the largest IPO in both the global autonomous driving industry and the Hong Kong AI sector for 2025.

However, on its debut on November 6, 2025, Pony AI immediately broke its offer price, opening at HK$124—a 10.79% drop—and closing at HK$126.1.

The stock continued to decline thereafter, and while it saw some intermittent rebounds, the price never managed to reclaim its IPO level. Since the start of 2026, the share price has experienced further sustained pressure.

Following the release of its 2025 results on March 26, 2026, the stock plummeted. By the close on March 27, 2026, the daily decline hit 13.96%, leaving the price 46.33% below the HK$139 offer price—nearly a 50% haircut for early investors.

GAAP Losses Narrow, but "Self-Sustaining" Capability Remains Elusive

According to the earnings report, Pony AI’s total revenue reached $90 million in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20%, marking its fourth consecutive year of growth. The report forecasts that by the end of 2026, the Robotaxi fleet will exceed 3,000 vehicles, with deployments in over 20 cities globally.

Robotaxi service revenue reached $16.6 million, a surge of 128.6%, while passenger fare revenue grew by nearly 400%. In the fourth quarter alone, Robotaxi revenue was $6.74 million, accounting for about 40% of the annual total, with passenger fare revenue jumping over 500% year-on-year.

On the profitability front, the company reported a GAAP net loss of $76.8 million, a significant 72.1% narrowing compared to the $275 million loss in 2024. As of December 31, 2025, Pony AI held cash equivalents and short/long-term investments totaling RMB 10.593 billion.

Despite these highlight figures, the sharp decline in share price indicates that development has not met market expectations.

NewTimeSpace noted that Pony AI’s overall loss-making pattern remains unchanged, and its operating cash flow continues to be under pressure. Although the GAAP loss narrowed, the adjusted non-GAAP net loss expanded to $174 million, up 31.5% year-on-year. Net cash outflow from operating activities was $165 million, suggesting the company has yet to form an organic, "self-sustaining" profit loop.

Industry insiders point out that true large-scale application of autonomous driving faces not only technical iterations but also high validation costs and varying regulatory thresholds across countries. The industry remains in a phase of "revenue growth without profit," a structural contradiction that is unlikely to be resolved fundamentally in the short term.

Accelerating Global Footprint Despite Middle Eastern Geopolitical Risks

In overseas markets, Pony AI is accelerating the replication of its technologies and operations—validated in complex Chinese urban environments—to Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

On March 26, 2026, Pony AI announced its "Dual-Engine Strategy" for 2026: deepening its domestic footprint while accelerating international expansion, with plans to launch in over 20 cities worldwide.

On the same day, Pony AI announced strategic partnerships with the autonomous mobility company Verne and the global platform Uber. This collaboration aims to launch Europe’s first commercial Robotaxi service in Zagreb, the capital of Croatia.

Under this model, Pony AI will provide the autonomous driving solutions; Verne will act as the fleet owner and operator; and Uber will integrate the service into its global ride-hailing network to complement Verne’s own user platform. The three parties intend to create a scalable commercialization path, starting in Zagreb and gradually expanding to other European cities. The fleet size is expected to reach thousands of vehicles in the coming years.

During the earnings call, Pony AI CEO James Peng, addressing questions about the Middle East, stated: "Current geopolitical tensions have almost no direct impact on our business. The Middle East remains one of our priority regions." The company continues to push forward in the GCC region, with plans to launch paid services in Doha, Qatar, in collaboration with Mowasalat. In Dubai, the company is prepared to fully launch driverless operations pending approval later this month.

The Robotaxi sector is becoming increasingly crowded, with Pony AI facing off against players like WeRide, Apollo Go, DiDi Autonomous Driving, and Ontime, creating a highly competitive landscape.

According to Frost & Sullivan, the Robotaxi fleet in China's Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities is expected to reach 1.01 million vehicles by 2030, with a penetration rate of 25%. Guosheng Securities predicts the associated market scale could reach RMB 242.4 billion.

For investors, the key variables for Pony AI’s long-term value will be its ability to replicate the success of single-vehicle profitability across 20+ cities and whether its co-built fleet model can translate into sustainable profit growth.

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